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10 October 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #328
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
AUSTRIA
Austrian president to be re-elected
On 09 October, the Interior Ministry announced the preliminary results of the Austria Elections which revealed the possibility of the incumbent President Alexander Van der Bellen to be elected again. Van der Bellen won a majority of 54.6 per cent with no opposition and support from bigger parties except the far-right Freedom Party. The opposition candidate, Walter Rosenkranz of the far-right Freedom Party received only 19.1 per cent votes due to decline in the support from the previous corruption scandal. (“Austria elections: President Van der Bellen reelected, projections show”, Deutsche Welle, 09 October 2022)
GERMANY
Social Democrats win the Lower Saxony elections adding advantage to German Chancellor
On 09 October, the Social Democrats from the current coalition of Germany won the regional elections held in Lower Saxony despite the critics over economic recession and energy crisis. The vote includes the SPD party led by Stephen Weil won with 33.4 per cent which was slightly less than the 2017 elections where is won 36.9 per cent. In case of the opposition, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was able to get only 28.1 per cent with decrease of five per cent from the 2017 elections. The coalition probabilities are likely to be between the SPD’s and the Greens which came third in the elections with 14.5 per cent. Another takeaway to look at the election result is the doubling of vote share of the AfD (far-right Alternative for Germany party) which increased to 10.9 per cent. (“Germany: Lower Saxony election a boost for Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” Deutsche Welle, 09 October 2022)
ITALY
Economic crisis looms over Italy, reducing household spending capacity
On 09 October, La Repubblica reported that according to the data by Confesercenti, an Italian trade association representing firms in trade, tourism, services, crafts and small services, Italians have reduced their purchasing power due to the rising energy prices. The soaring energy costs have made Italy’s citizens to spend money from their savings thereby diminishing it. The spending capacity has fallen by almost EUR 12.1 billion. High energy tariffs and inflation has increased the cost of living among the citizens. Italians are not looking for credits due to the high interest rates. However, tourism in Italy has started to revive slowly from the COVID-19 economic crisis. (Carlotta Scozzari, “The high cost of life burns 12.1 billion of Italians. And families use the savings,” La Repubblica, 09 October 2022)
REGIONAL
MED 5 push for EU intervention amid migration fears
On 08 October, MED 5 consisting of Mediterranean countries pushed the EU to intervene to curb the increase in migration. Ministers of Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Spain met for their fourth meeting to discuss the surge in migration in the region. Italy is also a part of this group but no representative attended the meeting. The group called upon the EU to step up and ensure the Ankara-Brussels agreement in 2016 on returning migrants is upheld. They also talked about how the Ukraine war will increase the number of migrants fleeing to Europe as things escalate there. The group also called for a holistic approach to dealing with the migration crisis and for other EU members to help with the same. (“MED 5 calls for more EU
support fearing a possible migration spike due to Ukraine war”, Euronews, 08 October 2022)
Albanian gang caught smuggling migrants
On 08 October, Spanish police caught members of a gang accused of smuggling Albanian migrants. They were said to be smuggling them to the UK through the channel from Spain. This was a joint mission with the help of the British National Crime Agency. It is suspected that they have been smuggling migrants since 2014 and the total amount of migrants is unknown. They were collecting payment between EUR 3,000 and EUR 15,000 for the journey from Albania to the UK through Spain. (“Spain arrests Albanian ganginvolved in smuggling migrants to UK”, Reuters, 08 October 2022
INTERNATIONAL
Biden signs new executive order for transatlantic data-privacy partnership with the EU
On 07 October, the US President Joe Biden announced the establishment of the Data Privacy Framework collaboration between the US and the EU. Through the executive order, the party will ensure to set-up a legal basis for the “data flow,” and strengthen the existing privacy and civil liberties especially for US intelligence. As part of the transatlantic partnership, individuals of both countries will be allowed to seek redressal if they think the personal data was collected in any violation to the US laws. This deemed to benefit the small business enterprises which heavily depend on the “cross border” information to increase their participation in the digital economy and enlarge their economic landscape. (“FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order to Implement the European Union-U.S. Data Privacy Framework,” The White House, 07October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 227 & 228
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 09 September, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the continued strike in Zaporizhzhia. In the report, close to 49 were injured and 17 were dead. The attack is seen in response to the missile strike on the Crimean bridge.
On 08 September, the Head of the National Police of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, in a statement announced that about 20 bodies, including that of children, civilians and Ukraine’s servicemen were dug out in Lyman of Donetsk region. The newly discovered site stretches 40 meters long, where the victims were buried in a single grave. Some had plaques about information about the deceased, but most of the bodies were unidentified. The Police have taken biological samples to identify the nameless bodies and determine the cause of their death.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 09 October, RT reported on the Russia’s Federal Security Service report on the attacks on the Crimean Bridge on 08 October. According to the national Investigative Committee of Russia, Head, Aleksandr Bastrykin claimed that Ukrainian Security Services with the help of Russian had demonstrated the attack targeting its “critical infrastructure.” On the damages, Bastrykin reported that the explosion caused an obstruction to both road and railway and stated that it was resumed the same evening. On the same Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said: “It was ordered, planned and carried out by the Ukrainian security services.”
On 08 October, Putin called the Crimean Bridge attack as an “Act of terrorism.” Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin was instructed to set up a government commission to investigate the incident. As per Putin's instruction, the Transport Minister and the Emergency Minister of Russia have left for the Kerch Bridge to inspect and till now no party has taken responsibility for the explosion. RT claims Ukraine to be responsible for the attack.
On 08 August, Russia appointed a new general to lead the Ukraine offensive. General Sergei Surovikin has combat experience in the 1990 conflicts in Tajikistan and Chechnya and also served terms in Syria where Russia intervened in 2015. The new appointment coincides with several setbacks for Russia with Ukraine mounting a rapid counteroffensive in Kharkiv, and the explosion damaging major parts of the Kerch Bridge. Surovikin is known to be a tougher general than his predecessor Army General Alexander Dvornikov and is expected to revitalize Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
On 08 October, Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov spoke about the sanctions and economic measures taken by the West. He said that Russia's response to the "economic aggression" had been restrained. He also added that the sanctions have failed to affect Russia’s economy adversely, and had backfired on the West, initiating high inflation and energy shortages. Lavrov mentioned that to deal with the western measures, Russia would strengthen its “economic and technological sovereignty” with states in Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East, and thus establish “alternative financial and logistical chains to facilitate foreign trade.” On 07 September, the Head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov announced the joining of the additional 70,000. Kadyrov expressed his solidarity for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 09 October, the UK Intelligence provided an update on the Kerch Strait Bridge damage. In the report, it stated how the bridge serves as a link to Crimea and Krasnodar in Russia. It estimated two roadways to have collapsed, the damage to rail line is unclear but it stated that any dent to the rail capacity will hinder Russia’s ability to maintain its forces in Southern Ukraine.
On 09 October, a Bloomberg delved into the success of Ukraine’s army, against Russia’s troops who are expected to be a stronger force. The primary reasons behind Ukraine’s success are modern weapons provided to Ukraine by its allies, along with military training, more cohesive and efficient command structure, better planning and intelligence aid which helps in better strategy formation.
On 08 October, Reuters reported that the UK has rejected Russia’s call for a secret ballot in the UN General Assembly. The vote is to condemn Russia’s “illegal so-called referenda” in DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that the international community has denounced. Moreover, the UK has urged the 193-member body to vote publicly, instead of on a secret ballot. Citing rule 87b of the Charter, Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said: "To conduct a secret ballot on a General Assembly decision would go against decades of precedent and undermine the practices of the world's most representative deliberative body." The vote has been scheduled for 11 October 2022.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 09 October, Kyrgyzstan independently cancelled joint military drills amid the six nations of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), less than 24 hours before it started. While the Kyrgyz Defence Ministry did not state a reason for the abandonment of the exercises, these drills were meant to involve army personnel from CSTO members, including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and centre itself on securing ceasefires. This decision has indicated the increasing tensions within the alliance with Aremina skipping a two-week drill in Kazakhstan, criticising the CSTO for failing to support the country in its fighting with Azerbaijan. Russia and the CSTO countries turned down Armenia’s request for military aid and limited their response to sending fact-finding missions to the border.
On 08 October, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Head, Mariano Grossi informed that because of renewed shelling near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) facility, it has lost its last remaining power sources. It was relying on emergency diesel generators for “essential nuclear safety and security functions.” The generators are being used to cool and conduct safety operations for the nuclear reactors to prevent a meltdown. The 750-kilovolt power line was cut because of the continued attacks and engineers are trying to repair the damages it has sustained.
On 07 October, the IMF executive board approved additional aid of USD 1.3 billion to Ukraine under the food shock window Rapid Financing Instrument. The new disbursement will assist Ukraine in meeting their balance of payment needs. The press release by the IMF announcing the new aid appreciated Ukraine for being able to maintain micro-financial stability while dealing with a war. The IMF also announced that in collaboration with Ukrainian authorities, it will initiate discussion on Program Monitoring with Board involvement (PMB), to provide strong macroeconomic policies, catalyze donor support and facilitate easier access to its loans.
References
“First 20 bodies exhumed in Lyman, children among them,” Ukrinform, 09 October 2022
“Instructions pertaining to emergency situation on Crimean Bridge,” kremlin.ru, 08 October 2022
“Crimean Bridge explosion: What we know so far,” RT, 08 October 2022
“Russia Names New General to Lead Ukraine Offensive After Setbacks,” The Moscow Times, 08 October 2022
“Russia warns West over ‘economic aggression’,” RT, 08 October 2022
“Ukraine behind terrorist attack on Crimean Bridge – Putin,” RT, 08 October 2022
“Russia is firm about its measures in regard to Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions,” TASS, 08 October 2022
“Additional 70,000 Chechen fighters ready to join the special military operation — Kadyrov,” TASS, 08 October 2022
“UK Intelligence Update,” Ministry of Defence of the UK, 09 October 2022
Marc Champion, “Eight Years of Combat Hardened Ukraine’s Army Into a Fighting Force,” Bloomberg, 09 October 2022
Michelle Nichols, “Britain slaps down Russia's push for secret U.N. vote on Ukraine,” Reuters, 08 October 2022
“Kyrgyzstan cancels Russian-led military drill on its land,” AP News, 09 October 2022
Samuel Stolton, “Ukraine nuclear plant loses external power amid ongoing shelling,” POLITICO, 08 October 2022
“IMF Executive Board Approves US$ 1.3 Billion in Emergency Financing Support to Ukraine,” imf.org, 07 October 2022